Dynamic modelling of agricultural policies: The role of expectation schemes |
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Authors: | Fabienne Fé mé niaAlexandre Gohin |
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Affiliation: | a UMR SMART 1302 INRA Agrocampus, 4 allée Adolphe Bobierre, 35011 Rennes, Franceb CEPII, 113, rue de Grenelle, 75007 Paris, France |
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Abstract: | The highly disputed effects of agricultural trade liberalisation are mostly simulated with static models. Our main objective in this paper is to evaluate the robustness of the static simulation results to the consistent modelling of dynamic behaviours and to the linked specification of price/return expectations. Focusing on the scenario of a complete trade liberalisation of arable crop markets by developed countries, we find that available static results are quite robust compared to dynamic specifications and to most expectation schemes. Endogenous market fluctuations due to expectation errors may appear following trade liberalisation. These fluctuations are nevertheless limited by the many feedback effects revealed by our general equilibrium framework. |
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Keywords: | D50 D84 Q18 |
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