河南工业化城镇化发展与农民收入增长的实证分析

工业化、城镇化发展水平是影响农民收入增长的主要因素,从工业化、城镇化与农民收入增长正相关的假定入手,利用1978—2009年河南省工业化水平、城镇化率、非农产业就业比重和农民人均纯收入增长率等相关指标数据,在对工业化和城镇化进程中的农民收入增长进行描述性分析的基础上,运用协整分析、向量误差修正(VECM)模型、Granger因果检验及方差分解等动态分析方法,对河南工业化、城镇化发展与农民收入增长之间的动态相关性进行了严谨的实证分析。研究结论可作为推进河南工业化、城镇化发展和提高农民收入的政策性建议。

The Empirical Analysis Based on Industrialization Urbanization Development and Farmers' Income Growth in Henan

Industrialization and urbanization development level are the main factors influencing the farmers' income growth, the paper puts forward the assumption of positive correlation between industrialization urbanization and farmers' income growth, based on the 1978-2009 data analysis about industrialization level,urbanization rate,the proportion of non-agricultural industry employment,the rate of net income per farmers growth and related index figure in henan. In the paper, the dynamic analysis methods of co-integration analysis, vector error correct model, granger causality test and variance decomposition are used to analyze empirical data based on the positive correlation between industrialization urbanization and farmers' income growth in henna. The conclusion shows that it is a good policy suggestions as it advanced industrialization urbanization development and improved their income.