京津冀物流业与经济协同发展的实证研究

随着京津冀一体化协同发展上升为国家战略,物流业的发展将形成区域经济发展的高效路径,降低区域经济运行成本,推动区域经济一体化的进程。本文运用灰色系统相关理论,选取六个经济变量,从总供给和总需求两个层面,对京津冀物流业发展与经济的关联度和协同性进行了实证研究。研究发现京津冀物流业与各区域经济的发展之间存在较高的关联性,总体上较为协调,但也表现出一定的差异。北京的工业、第三产业、社会消费品零售总额,天津的第三产业、社会消费品零售总额、净出口总额,河北的社会消费品零售总额和净出口总额与各区域的物流业发展不够协调。最后根据结论提出了相应的政策建议。

An Empirical Study of Cooperative Development Between Logistics Industry and Economy in Jing-Jin-Ji Region

Regional integration and cooperative development of Jing-Jin-Ji have become a national development strategy. Logistics industry will form a highly efficient path to regional economic development, reduce operating cost of regional economy and promote regional economic integration. Based on the theory of grey system, the paper selects six economic variables and makes an empirical study of the correlation and cooperativity between logistics industry and economy in Jing-Jin-li region from the two levels of total supply and total demand. The results show that there is a high correlation be- tween logistics industry and regional economic development. Although it is coordinative in general, it has some dif- ferences. There is the lack of coordination between Beijing＇ s industry, tertiary industry and total retail sales of social con- sumer goods, Tianjin＇ s tertiary industry, total retail sales of social consumer goods and total net exports, Hebei＇ s total retail sales of social consumer goods and total net exports and their respective regional logistics industry. Finally, it puts forward some suggestions according to the conclusion.