全球外商直接投资波动周期的实证分析

本文以全球外商直接投资总量为研究对象,采用实证分析方法研究全球外商直接投资的波动周期、变动幅度和周期走势。通过对20多年来数据的考察,证实全球外商直接投资具有周期性波动特征,且短周期约为5年,中周期约为10年。其波动幅度在所研究的时间段内越来越大,波动速度越来越快。预测未来FDI将保持增长的长期趋势,较大的波动幅度会周期性地出现。

Empirical Analysis on the Fluctuation Cycle of Global FDI

This essay studies the cycle, margin and tendency of global FDI fluctuation with empirical analyzing tools. Based on the examination of the data of over 20 years, it is found that global FDI is cyclical and the short-term cycle is about 5 years and the middle-term cycle is about 10 years. It is also found that the margin of fluctuation is bigger and bigger within the time span of the study and the fluctuation speed is faster and faster. It is predicted that FDI in the future tends to increase in the long run and a relatively big margin will occur cyclically.