财政风险金融化影响经济增长的模型分析与实证检验

中央政府以金融手段化解财政风险的行为,即为财政风险金融化。这种策略在短期内可能会抑制财政风险,但是,它不仅会导致通货膨胀,加大纳税人的税负,还会导致财政风险的持续上升,因此,从长期来看,财政风险金融化会向上推动经济风险,并最终抑制经济增长与发展。基于中国数据的协整检验表明,财政风险金融化在长期内对经济增长具有模型的抑制效应,若不有效限制这种政府行为,后果不堪设想。

Model Analysis and Empirical Test on Effect of Financialization of Fiscal Risk upon Economic Growth

Financialization of fiscal risk is an action taken by the central government to depress the fiscal risk.Such procedure is able to cope with the fiscal risk in the short term.But in the long run it will increase the economic risks and be an obstacle of the economic growth because it will result in an inflation which gives a tax burden to taxpayers,but also bring on a sustainable fiscal risk.In such a case,the condition can be obtained in a growth model of dynamic optimization.The co-integration test based upon Chinese data indicates that financialization of fiscal risk will depress economic growth in the long run,so the consequences will be worsening without limiting such governmental behavior.