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Postconflict Monetary Reconstruction |
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| Authors: | Adam, Christopher Collier, Paul Davies, Victor A.B. |
| Affiliation: | Christopher Adam (corresponding author) is a research associate at the Centre for the Study of African Economies, Department of Economics, University of Oxford; Paul Collier is the director of the Centre for the Study of African Economies; his email address is paul.collier{at}economics.ox.ac.uk Victor A.B. Davies is a senior research economist at the African Development Bank and a research associate at the Centre for the Study of African Economies; his email address is v.davies{at}afdb.org |
| Abstract: | During civil wars governments typically resort to inflationto raise revenue. A model of this phenomenon is presented, estimated,and applied to the choices and constraints faced during thepostconflict period. The results show that far from there beinga fiscal peace dividend, postconflict governments tend to faceeven more pressing needs after than during war. As a result,in the absence of postconflict aid, inflation increases sharply,frustrating a more general monetary recovery. Aid decisivelytransforms the path of monetary variables in the postconflictperiod, enabling the economy to regain peacetime characteristics.Postconflict aid thus achieves a monetary "reconstruction" analogousto its more evident role in infrastructure. |
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