亚运会奖牌影响因素的实证研究

以第9-15届亚运会奖牌榜为样本，通过构建计量模型，从宏观角度对亚运会奖牌分布的影响因素进行了实证研究。研究发现：人口规模、经济实力对亚运会成绩有显著的积极作用；收入水平与亚运会奖牌数呈显著正相关，且存在二次倒U型曲线关系；东道主效应会促进主办国在亚运会上的成绩表现；相比资本主义制度，社会主义制度有利于取得更多的亚运会奖牌；文化上喜爱与重视体育运动的国家或地区亚运会成绩更好；东亚地区的亚运会表现显著优于其他亚洲地区。最后对我国实施正确的体育战略提出了建议。

An Empirical Study of Factors Affecting Asian Games Medals

Using a sample of 9-15th Asia Games medals, the authors have established econometric models for an empirical study on the factors affecting the distribution of Asian Games medals from a macro perspective. The results show that the size of population and economic strength are significantly positive to the athletic performance of Asian Games; income levels of stake-holders and their medals are of positive correlation, formulating a significant quadratic inverted U-curve relationship; host effects can assist the host country to get more medals; the socialist countries reap more medals than the capitalist countries; countries of athletic traditions take more medals; East Asian countries perform significantly better than the other countries of the continent. This paper, in passing, offers some strategic suggestions for the sports development in China.