The Quest for Robust Counterfeit and Piracy Figures: Custom Agencies as Statistical Decision‐makers and Recent Evidence Based on German Imports

Based on unique custom seizure data, we extrapolate robust figures on the amount of counterfeit and piracy in German imports. We therefore outline a simple model which explores estimation biases in counterfeit statistics provided by utility‐maximising custom agencies. Our empirical strategy sets out to (i) provide evidence on bias and, (ii) guided by theory, identify an unbiased subsample of the data. Upper bound population estimates (counterfeit shares) for 2010–11 suggest that around 17 per cent of all German imports are counterfeit. In addition, we highlight differences in counterfeit trade by commodity and distribution channel, and conclude with policy advice.