霸权依赖与领导国家权势衰落的逻辑

在国际关系历史上,领导国家的衰落无疑是一个激发学者们持久想象力的重大问题。作者在已有研究的基础上尝试从一个新的理论视角,即霸权依赖的分析路径探讨领导国家衰落的根源。其核心假设是,领导国家的权势衰落源于其拥有霸权本身,对霸权的过度依赖导致领导国家不可避免地走向了衰落。作者认为,领导国家通过建立霸权成为了既定国际体系中的收租人,垄断着国际财富资源的分配,但大规模的财富资源也导致了领导国家内部需求的膨胀。当自身实力不足以支撑这种刚性需求时,领导国家转而通过进一步控制霸权来获取资源、转移矛盾;而边缘国家的顺从则为领导国家的对外剥削提供了合法支持,从而导致了领导国家霸权依赖局面的生成。随着霸权依赖程度的加深,领导国家的内部性质逐渐发生蜕变,其对外行为则日益从现状满意变得具有进攻性进而陷入到过度扩张的陷阱之中。由于边缘地带中新兴大国的崛起,领导国家的权势地位呈现出相对衰落的趋势,开启了国际权力从集中走向分散的历史进程。

Hegemonic Dependence and the Logic in the Declining Ascendance of Leading Powers

In the history of international relations,the fall of leading powers is undoubtedly the most fascinating topic fueled the lasting imagination of scholars.The author argues that the declining ascendance of leading powers is rooted in their too much dependence on hegemony.Through the building of hegemony,the leading powers became rent collector in the established international system and monopolized the allocation of international wealth and resources.However,the large-scale wealth and resources would lead to rapidly increasing demands within the leading powers,and eventually drive the leading powers to grab more resources by making use of its hegemony;meanwhile,the submission of periphery countries provided the legitimacy for the leading powers’ external exploitation.With deepening hegemonic dependence,the internal nature of leading powers began to change and the external behavior became more aggressive,falling into an over-extension trap.Thus,the rise of emerging powers and the relative decline of the leading powers initiated the historical process of international power shift from concentration to decentralization.