人口老化的经济分析:近期研究文献述评

本文研究了人口老化的近期文献,发现人口老化可以通过影响要素供给和生产力两大增长源泉影响经济长期增长能力。人口老化会使劳动供给减少,但未必使储蓄率下降(从而资本积累减少)。人口老化会使个体生产力下降,但未必使总生产力下降,对物质资本和人力资本投资的激励增强甚至可以提高生产力。人口老化会增加社会福利支出,进而对国家财政产生压力,但这种压力在不同的社会保障制度下对社会福利影响也有所不同。因此,人口老化并不必然对经济增长具有负效应,我们应对人口老化持谨慎科学的态度。

Economic Analysis of Population Ageing:A Review of Recent Literatures

According to recent literatures,this paper shows that population ageing can affect long-term economic growth ability by the influence on factor supply and labor productivity.Ageing will cut down labor supply,but not always lower savings rate.Ageing will lead to the decline of individual productivity,but not always induce the decline of aggregate productivity.Ageing will increase payment of social welfare and put pressure on state finance,but the pressure of different social security institution has differen...