河北省水产品供给与需求预测分析

论文在河北省水产品供给与需求分析基础上,选择时间序列数据,运用线性回归模型和灰色预测模型对2010～2014年的水产品市场供给与需求趋势进行了预测。预测结果显示,"十二五"期间河北省水产品市场的供求状况将由供给大于需求向需求大于供给转变。随着城乡居民消费和水产品加工消费的增加,2012年将达到供需均衡,2013年后将出现需求大于供给的形势。根据对未来水产品市场的均衡分析,提出应选择政、产、学、研相结合的开发模式,实现科技兴渔和产业化发展;提高水产品加工效率,提升产业附加值;大力加强渔业流通和服务业等渔业经济发展等建议。

Analysis and forecast of aquatic products supply and demand in Hebei Province

Based on the analysis of aquatic products supply and demand in Hebei,the supply and demand trend of aquatic product market from 2010 to 2014 years was predicted by the linear regression model and grey prediction model.The results showed the demand would exceed supply in aquatic product market during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period of Hebei province.According to the equilibrium analysis of future aquatic product market,the developmental model of combining politics,production,education and research should be chosen in order to realize the fishing industry and sci-technology.The suggestion of fisheries economics development was put forward,including the increase of aquatic product processing efficiency to upgrade the industrial added value,the reinforcement of fishery circulation and service industry and so on.