认真对待预测:国际关系理论发展与预测

国际关系理论具有描述、解释、预测和指导等主要功能,但学术界长期以来对理论的预测功能缺乏足够的重视。作者通过考察科学哲学以及国际关系理论领域的既有成果后发现,理论预测可以作为评估和发展理论的必要组成部分,并能为修正和完善主流国际关系理论提供有价值的知识。虽然理论预测的准确与否并不能作为评判理论解释力强弱的唯一标准,但在满足理论所设定的解释范围和条件之内,一种指涉经验现实的理论也应该可以做出相对具体且明确的预测来帮助我们理解国际格局或国家行为的发展趋势。自冷战结束后,国际关系理论界围绕国际格局变迁与东亚地区国际秩序转型等问题展开了诸多争论,通过对这些成果进行初步评估,作者发现几种主流国际关系理论的解释力和预测力都有待提升,准确的预测需要对不同理论的核心要素进行综合,这样才能更加全面地反映现实世界的复杂性。

Taking Prediction Seriously:International Relations Theory Development and Theoretical Prediction

Although description,explanation,prediction and prescription are among the most important functions of international relations theories,relatively speaking,theoretical prediction is a function lack of sufficient attention in academia.By examining existing publications both in the philosophy of science and in international relations theory,the authors conclude that theoretical predictions should and can be included as a necessary part of theory development and evaluation.When the scope and conditions are met,a theory with empirical implications should be able to make some relatively specific and clear predictions,which helps to understand the changing trends of international situation and state behavior.After the Cold War,both the change of international structure and the transformation of East Asian order are heatedly debated among the students of international relations.Based on a preliminary assessment of these research results,the authors find that both explanatory and predictive power of the mainstream international relations theories should be improved and accurate predictions can only be made by combining the core elements from different theories in order to reflect the complexity of the real world.