河北省农村剩余劳动力转移实证研究——基于计量经济模型

农村剩余劳动力的转移主要是以农村和乡镇非农产业吸纳为主,其次为城市化的吸引。但从分析模型中显示,城市化变量的影响系数不大,说明其对农村剩余劳动力的转移作用有限。实际情况也是这样,河北省农村劳动力的转移,主要还是以农村和乡镇中的非农产业的就地转移为主要途径。因此,我们不能单纯依靠工业扩张解决日益凸显的失业问题,而应同时大力发展农村经济,适当控制城市工资率的提高,同时重点增加农民的收入,缩小城乡收入差距。

The Quantitative Research on Surplus Rural Workers Transfer in Hebei Province

The transfer of rural surplus labor force is mainly absorbed by rural towns and non-agricultural industries primarily,followed by the urbanization.But from the analysis of the model,variables coefficient of the urbanization is not big,which because its function on the transfer of rural surplus labor force is limited.Therefore,we can’t only depend upon the industrial expansion to solve the increasingly prominent unemployment problem,and should develop the rural economy,control the increase of city proper wage rate,and focus on increasing the peasants’ income,narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas.