中国对外直接投资发展阶段的实证研究

伴随着中国经济国际竞争力的不断增强和“走出去”战略的逐步实施,中国已成为新兴的对外直接投资来源地。本文应用最新的经济统计数据,就中国经济发展水平和对外直接投资之间的关系进行实证研究,以此分析判断中国对外直接投资所处的发展阶段及未来趋势。实证结果表明:一方面,中国对外直接投资与邓宁的投资发展周期理论对经济发展与对外投资之间关系的规律性认识相吻合;另一方面,中国现阶段的对外直接投资的实际情况与理论预期还存在较大的差距,对外直接投资的发展阶段滞后于经济整体发展水平。

An Empirical Research of Chinese Outward FDI Development Path

With the improvement of international competitiveness of Chinese economy and the implementation of going global strategy, China has become the emerging outward FDI source in the world. Based on the latest economic data, this thesis investigates the relationship between Chinese economic development and its outward FDI. Thus Chinese outward FDI path and its trend can be determined and judged based on the empirical results. It is found that, the relationship between Chinese economic development and its outward FDI is consistent with Dunning's theory of investment development path; however, there exists a big gap between the present situation of Chinese outward FDI and theoretical expectation, the path of Chinese outward FDI is lagged behind its economic development.