储备粮运作与粮食价格变动关系的实证分析

我国储备粮运作在平抑粮价方面没有发挥应有的作用。文章在无法直接获取粮食储备总量的情况下,根据假设条件计算出粮食储备量的增量数据,分析了储备粮规模变动与粮食价格变动的关系,发现储备粮在平抑市场粮价波动方面虽然有一定效果,但不是很显著,储备粮的运作存在一定程度的"逆向操作"现象。因此,文章建议将粮食储备的目标定位于粮食安全,进一步理顺国家和地方粮食储备的关系,在储备粮运作中引入期货市场机制。

EMPIRICALLY STUDY ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE OPERATION OF FOOD RESERVES AND THE CHANGE OF FOOD PRICE

The operation of food reserves had not played the due role in controlling the fluctuation of market food price. This article,under the situation that the total quantity of food reserves can not be gained directly,analyzed the relationship between the change of food reserves scale and of food price by the incremental data calculated according to the supposition condition. The results showed that the food reserves could hold down the fluctuation of market food price to a certain extent,but there was no obvious effect,and the operation of food reserves had "reversion operation" phenomenon to some extent. Therefore,the article suggested that the target of food reserves should focus on food security,straighten out the relationship between the central and the local authorities in food reserves,and introduce the future market mechanism.