全面减免东盟关税对中国宏观经济和产业影响的可计算一般均衡分析

Chingem模型是一个中国静态CGE模型.本文在Chingem模型的基础上,分析了2010年中国全面减免东盟原六国关税对中国宏观经济和产业的长期影响.在原模型的基础上,改进了宏观闭合条件.将原来作为剩余量处理的居民消费与居民收入联系起来,使经济增长会作用到居民消费,使模拟结果更加符合实际.研究表明全面减免对东盟的关税有利于我国经济的和谐发展;减少了经济增长对净出口的依赖;促进了进、出口商品结构的升级;促进了服务业的发展,但农业和制造业的一些部门会受到负面影响;制造业的就业会下降,服务业和农业的就业会上升.

Chinese Macro Economic and Industrial Effects Analysis of Across-the-Board Tariff Reduction to ASEAN Estimated from Computable General Equilibrium Model

Chingem model is a static CGE model of China. This paper analyzes the long-term macro economic and industrial effects of across-the-board tariff reduction to the six original members of ASEAN in China, on the basis of Chingera model. This paper, which relats the resident consumption that is treated as residential variable in the original Chingem model, to the resident income on the basis of the Chingem model, improved the long-term macro closure, so that the economy growth will affect resident consumption, making the results more reliable. The research shows that in the long term, when cutting tariff to ASEAN completes, the economy of China will develop harmoniously; the economic growth will less depend on net export; the structure of import and export will be upgraded; service industry will get benefits while the agriculture and manufacture industry will be damaged; the employment of manufacture industry will fall while the employment of service and agriculture industry will rise.