影响中国林业企业对俄直接投资的经济、资源和制度因素

以2005—2017年中国对俄罗斯的FDI数据为样本,建立多元回归模型,实证分析了影响中国林业企业对俄直接投资的经济、资源、制度因素。结果表明:提高中俄贸易关系紧密度和人民币对卢布汇率能够促进中俄两国的林业投资合作,俄罗斯森林资源禀赋和原木产量的提高推动着中国林业企业在俄罗斯开展直接投资,中俄两国的法律制度差异、话语权和问责差异与中国林业企业对俄罗斯的FDI流量为负相关,然而两国的腐败遏制差异、政府效率差异对于中国林业企业在俄罗斯开展直接投资有着显著的正向影响。因此,应加强中俄两国政府的政策沟通和经济合作,有效规避汇率风险;增加中国的人工林培育面积;积极完善俄罗斯的制度质量,降低中国林业企业在俄罗斯的投资成本。

Economic,Resource and Institutional Factors Affecting Chinese Forestry Enterprises' Direct Investment in Russia

(1)Background——In recent years,in order to stimulate domestic employment and protect domestic forest resources,the Russian government has frequently issued policies to restrict the trade of logs,and has repeatedly raised the export tariffs of logs,which has made China's timber import situation grim. In order to alleviate the pressure of insufficient timber imports,China began to carry out forestry direct investment in Russia which has rich forest resources. Chinese forestry enterprises' direct investment projects in Russia involve logs,sawn timber,wooden furniture,wooden flooring,wood-based panels and non-wood forest products processing and other fields.(2)Methods——By sorting out and combining with the current situation of Chinese forestry enterprises' direct investment in Russia,this paper tries to establish a multiple regression model from the perspectives of economy,resources and system, and makes an empirical study on the influencing factors of Chinese forestry enterprises' direct investment in Russia. Taking the time series data from 2005 to 2017 as samples,the regression results of the initial model exclude some insignificant variables,including Russian per capita national income,Russian GDP,Russian log exports,Sino-Russian regulatory quality distance,Sino-Russian Political stability and the elimination of violent distance.(3) Results——In terms of economic factors,Sino-Russian trade relations have a significant positive impact on Chinese forestry enterprises' direct investment in Russia. For every 1 percentage point increase in the trade relationship between China and Russia,the FDI flows of Chinese forestry enterprises to Russia will increase by2. 72. The exchange rate of RMB against the ruble has a positive impact on the FDI flows of Chinese forestry enterprises in Russia. For every 1 percentage point increase in the exchange rate of the renminbi against the ruble,Chinese forestry enterprises will increase their FDI flows to Russia by 0. 84 percentage points. In terms of resource factors,Russia's log production and FSC forest certification area have an important impact on Chinese forestry enterprises' direct investment in Russia. The regression coefficients of log( x5) and log( x7) are 3. 51 and0. 71,respectively,which indicates that for every 1% increase in Russian timber output and FSC forest certification area,Chinese forestry enterprises' direct investment in Russia will increase by 3. 51% and 0. 71%,respectively. In terms of institutional factors,the regression coefficients of Sino-Russian legal system distance,discourse power and accountability distance are all negative,while the regression coefficients of Sino-Russian corruption control distance and government efficiency distance are positive. It shows that the FDI flows of Chinese forestry enterprises in Russia are negatively related to the legal system differences,discourse rights and accountability differences between China and Russia,and the differences between the Chinese and Russian corruption containment and the government efficiency are positively related.(4) Conclusions and Discussions——The trade relationship between China and Russia,the RMB exchange rate against the ruble and the FDI flows of Chinese forestry enterprises in Russia are positively correlated.Russia's forestry production capacity and forest resource endowment have a significantly positive impact on Chinese forestry enterprises' carrying out direct investment in Russia. Differences in legal systems,discourse power and accountability between China and Russia inhibit Chinese forestry enterprises' direct investment in Russia.Differences in corruption containment and government efficiency promote the development of China's forestry enterprises' direct investment in Russia. Therefore,we should strengthen the economic cooperation between the Chinese and Russian governments,effectively avoid the exchange rate risk,increase the area of plantation cultivation in China,and reduce the investment cost of Chinese forestry enterprises in Russia.