农户劳动力迁移程度对林地流转的影响分析

基于江西省集体林权制度改革项目2011—2016年的连续监测数据,考虑非农就业的内生性,采用IV-Probit模型及其估计方法,分析集体林区农户劳动力长期外出务工对林地流转的影响。结果显示:集体林区农户劳动力迁移程度对林地转入有抑制作用,但对林地转出具有促进作用,且都通过了显著性检验。因此,政府部门应该在如何推动农村劳动力实现长期、有效、稳定的非农就业转移这一问题上做出相关努力,以促进农户间的林地流转,最终实现林业规模经营的目的。

Analysis of the Impact of Rural Labor Migration on Forestland Transfer

(1)Background——Government departments strongly encourage farmers to carry out forestland transfer and large-scale management in order to solve the problems brought by the new round of collective forest tenure reform such as the fragmentation of forestland and the low efficiency of allocation of forestland resources and so on.However,the rate of forestland transfer has been relatively low and has not been significantly improved so far.Therefore,what factors restrict the farmer's forestland transfer behavior is worth studying. This paper studies and analyzes the forestland transfer behavior from the perspective of off-farm employment of farmers,and hopes to give relevant policy enlightenment in promoting forestland transfer.(2)Methods——The research used the fixed monitoring data from 500 farmers in collective forest area of Jiangxi Province from 2011 to 2016. In this paper,the impact of long-term off-farm employment of rural laborers on forestland transfer is analyzed by constructing farmer decision-making model and adopting IV-Probit econometric model.(3) Results——The study found that:(1)As expected,long-term off-farm employment of rural laborers restrained the forestland transfer,and its effect was significant at the 1% statistical level. That implies the more farmer laborers participate in long-term off-farm employment,the less likely it is to flow into the forestland. If the labor force share of long-term off-farm employment of a farmer increases by one unit,the average probability of the farmer's inflow into the forestland will decrease 2. 4%.(2)In contrast,long-term off-farm employment of rural laborers has promoted the outflow of forestland and its effect is significant at the 10% statistical level. This estimated result is different from previous studies. They believe that off-farm employment has a positive impact on forestland inflow,but has not passed a significant test. This is because they don't distinguish the different impact between the long-term off-farm employment and local employment on forestland transfer.(3)All the other control variables are mostly within the forecast. Householder education level,family population,unit yield of forestland and forestland resources of farmers have significant positive effects on forestland inflow,while the distance from town center has significant negative effects on forestland inflow. In addition,the family population and the distance from the town center inhibit the outflow of forestland. Interestingly,forestland resources also have a significant positive impact on forestland outflow. This may be because farmers with abundant forest resources are more willing to integrate forestland through forestland transfer to achieve the intensification effect of forestland management.(4) Conclusions and Discussions——Long-term off-farm employment of rural laborers can inhibit the inflow of forestland and promote the outflow of forestland,and both of them have passed the significant test. It shows that the forestland transfer depends on the effective,stable and long-term transfer of off-farm employment of rural laborers. Therefore,relevant government departments can make some efforts to promote the stable offfarm employment transfer of rural laborers. First,government should strength vocational training of off-farm skills for rural laborers,so that they can participate in the division of labor in off-farm production sectors. Second,government should provide relevant social welfare guarantees for migrant workers who are working outside the county,and provide support and help on basic security issues such as their children's enrollment,education and medical care so that they can stay in the off-farm sector with ease and stability. Finally,government should accelerate the urbanization construction,promote the transformation of rural migrant workers into citizens,and realize intensive and large-scale management of forestry in the process of rural migrant workers moving to cities and towns.