中美贸易战对林产品贸易的影响及其对策建议

在梳理中美林产品贸易相互关系的基础上,分析了新一轮贸易战将对中美林业产业、林产品贸易、就业等的影响。结果表明:贸易战对中低级技术水平的从业人员影响较大,短期内对中国传统优势产品出口冲击较大,但长期反而能分摊和降低贸易风险,以价格优势为主的微利型木材加工企业和以美国为主要出口市场的出口导向型企业将面临较大风险;同时,贸易战不仅会直接损害美国消费者利益,还会加速其木材产业的萎缩。拓宽进口渠道,扩展替代市场和国内市场,加快国际合作,加强技术创新,落实财政政策是中国减缓和避免贸易战对中美双方林产品贸易产生不利影响的应对措施。

The Impact of Sino-US Trade War on Forest Products Trade and Its Countermeasures

(1)Background——Since 2018,the United States has adopted unilateralist measures to provoke a trade war,and China has been forced to take countermeasures. The list of products with tariffs in the United States covers almost all types of woody forest products except the prints exported by China to the United States. The types of forest products involved in the countermeasures that China was forced to take were basically equal to those in the US list except wood pulp. This paper studies the influence of China-USA trade war on forest products trade and puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to provide wisdom support for decision makers.(3) Impact——Due to the substitution of timber in the United States and the rising cost of tariffs,it not only frees up more market space for Russia and Europe,but also brings new opportunities for all countries along the"Belt and Road". However,low-profit timber processing enterprises based on price advantage and export-oriented enterprises with the United States as the main export market will face greater risks. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce,it is preliminarily estimated that the number of domestic forest products processing trade employment affected by the trade war will reach 5 million people,especially the employees with middle and low technical level. Exports of high-end and middle-end products are blocked,and it is difficult to expand the space depth of traditional export markets. The cultivation of emerging markets needs a space-time cycle.Therefore,the export of traditional Chinese superior products will be greatly affected in the short term. In the long run,the trade war will force Chinese enterprises to accelerate the development of emerging markets,adjust the market layout so as to reduce the excessive dependence on the U. S.. market and share and reduce trade risks. The impact of trade war on China's forestry industry is controllable,but it will cause great losses to the timber industry in the United States. Not only will it directly harm the interests of American consumers,but it will also accelerate the shrinkage of the timber industry.(4) Suggestions——The enterprises should be encouraged to make full use of the opportunity of"Belt and Road"construction and development to "go out"and invest in countries and regions with abundant forest resources. While ensuring the supply of raw materials and reducing the cost of forest products processing enterprises,we should accelerate the transfer of surplus advantage capacity and effectively avoid the high tariff barriers imposed by the United States on China's native forest products. We also should explore the market potential of the countries along the "Belt and Road",especially in areas such as Central Asia,South Asia,Middle East and North Africa where forestry processing industries are relatively backward and have rapid economic development. The import channels for resource-based products such as timber should be expanded to make up for the shortage of timber supply caused by the reduction of timber imports in the United States and ensure the safety of domestic timber supply. In addition,we should continue to consolidate traditional export markets such as Japan,the European Union and ASEAN,guide and support enterprises as an export substitution market for traditional large-scale superior products,develop emerging markets such as India,South Africa,Russia and Vietnam into the major export markets for medium and low-end forest products,draw lessons from Japan to incorporate domestic forest products into government procurement catalogue,formulate preferential policies for tax reduction and exemption for forest products production and trade enterprises,strengthen the support for the production and trade of woody forest products,expand the brand promotion of domestic forest products,enhance the awareness of independent choice of domestic consumers,encourage small and medium-sized enterprises to merge and reorganize,and guide forest products processing enterprises to enhance their awareness of independent innovation.