中国农业现代化水平的测算与俱乐部收敛分析

目的 农业现代化建设是动态的过程，衡量不同时期各地区农业现代化的表现，及其收敛特征对实现乡村振兴和区域均衡发展有重要意义。方法 文章首先基于熵权法，借助2003—2020年中国30个省（市、自治区，不含港澳台和西藏）的面板数据，构建包含农业面源污染数据在内的8项大指标体系，测算中国各地区的农业现代化水平；其次，借助非线性时变因子俱乐部检验法，识别农业现代化水平的收敛组；最后，应用Ordered Logit和Ordered Probit模型检验俱乐部的成因。结果 研究发现，中国农业现代化总体水平不高，地区差距明显；30个省（市、自治区，不含港澳台和西藏）收敛于4个俱乐部，其中北京、上海、黑龙江3个地区收敛于高水平俱乐部、21个地区收敛于中高水平俱乐部、云南和重庆收敛于中等水平俱乐部、山西、甘肃、贵州和青海收敛于低水平俱乐部；进一步研究发现，技术创新、人力资本水平和农业保险对俱乐部融合具有促进作用。结论 因此，低水平俱乐部可以通过提升人力资本、加大科技投入、发展农业保险等路径实现向高水平俱乐部的趋同。

MEASUREMENT OF THE LEVEL OF AGRICULTURAL MODERNIZATION IN CHINA AND CLUB CONVERGENCE ANALYSIS

The construction of agricultural modernization is a dynamic process, and it is important to measure the performance of agricultural modernization in different regions in different periods and its convergence characteristics to achieve rural revitalization and balanced regional development. In this paper, firstly, based on the entropy weight method, a system of eight indicators including agricultural surface source pollution data with the help of panel data of 30 provinces(cities and autonomous region) in China (except Tibet, Macao, Taiwan and Hong Kong) from 2003 to 2020 was constructed to measure the level of agricultural modernization in each region of China; Secondly, the convergence groups of the level of agricultural modernization was identified with the help of the non-linear time-varying factor club test; finally, the Ordered Logit and Ordered Probit models were applied to test the causes of the clubs. The study found that the overall level of agricultural modernization in China was low, with obvious regional disparities; 30 provinces(cities and autonomous region) converged in four clubs, of which three regions, Beijing, Shanghai and Heilongjiang, converged in the high level club, 21 regions converged in the middle to high level club, Yunnan and Chongqing converged in the middle level club, and Shanxi, Gansu, Guizhou and Qinghai converged in the low level club; further study found that technological innovation, human capital level and agricultural insurance had a facilitating effect on club convergence. Therefore, low level clubs can converge to high level clubs by improving human capital, increasing technology investment and developing agricultural insurance.