财政政策的供给效应与经济发展

本文分析了发展中国家公共投资对私人资本积累的动态响应。针对公共资本的拥挤性特征 ,同时考虑财政投资可能引起的风险。在不考虑公共投资风险的分权经济中 ,由于公共资本和私人资本都处于短缺状态 ,企业争夺拥挤性公共资本而扩张私人资本的投资行为虽然使经济超常增长 ,但是存在过度投资和过度拥挤。在集中优化模型中 ,如果考虑到公共投资的风险 ,政府通过税收方式弥补公共投资风险 ,同时将企业投资产生的拥挤效应内部化 ,就能消除企业的过度投资和过度拥挤现象 ,使经济保持合理持续的增长。对中国这样的发展中国家 ,需要重视财政的供给效应 ,在经济起飞初期保证一定数量的政府资本性支出是必要的 ,但随着经济的不断发展和政府资本性支出累积的风险增加 ,财政转型十分必要。

The Supply Effects of Fiscal Policy and Economic Development

This paper elaborates the impact of public investment on the dynamics of private capital formation in underdeveloped economies. The key feature of the analysis is that the public good is treated as a durable capital good, subject to congestion and risk. In the optimizing market-clearing economy, in which government invest risk loss is absent, the agents are stimulated to enhancing its private capital in order to employ more congested public capital in production due to scarcity of both public and private capital. This negative externality leads to an abnormally high growth rate of the economy, excess private investment and over congestion of public capital. On the contrast, in the optimizing centralized economy taxes are collected to make up the government investment risk losses. In the presence of public investment risk, a tradeoff between the risk and the productive benefits of the public capital avoids the negative externality so that the economy acquires a sustainable growth rate. Great importance should be attached to the supply effect of fiscal policy in the developing China. It is desirable to maintain high public capital expenditure in the economic ante-takeoff period, but the fiscal policy should be adapted to attack the aggravating latent public debt resulting from the public capital accumulation policy.