甘肃省能源消费碳排放的因素分解实证研究

本文基于碳排放量的基本等式,采用LMDI方法建立了甘肃省人均能源消费碳排放的因素分解模型,并运用1995~2008年相关数据分析了经济发展、能源强度、能源结构对甘肃省人均碳排放的影响,得出经济发展是促进甘肃人均碳排放增加的主要动力,能源强度是抑制碳排放的重要因素,而能源结构对甘肃人均碳排放变化的影响不明显。最后,结合实证研究结果,提出相应的政策性建议。

Decomposition Empirical Study of Energy- Consumption Carbon Emission in Gansu Province

Based on the basic equation of carbon discharge amount,the factor decomposition model of per capita energy-consumption carbon emission in Gansu province is set up by applying Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI);by analyzing the effects of economic development,energy intensity and energy resource structure on Gansu per capita carbon emission on the basis of related data in 1995~2008,the thesis has achieved that economic growth is the crucial factor to speed the increase of Gansu per capita carbon emission;the energy intensity is the main factor to control carbon emission;and energy resource structure has no clear influence on Gansu per capita carbon emission.In the end,integrating the empirical analyzing achievement,the authors put forward corresponding policy suggestions.