金融科技对银行业务的冲击影响——基于VAR模型的实证分析

金融科技加快了银行“金融脱媒”的进程，研究金融科技对银行业务影响作用机理对商业银行的转型至关重要。利用VAR模型分析了2017—2022年商业银行贷款、存款、手续费及佣金净收入及对应市场第三方互联网支付交易规模等季度数据，通过建立VAR模型来分析金融科技对商业银行资产、负债、中间业务的冲击程度和相应解释贡献度。研究发现第三方互联网支付交易规模对商业银行的资产业务在前五期产生了较为明显的反向作用；此外余额宝的货币市场基金以及第三方互联网支付交易两者的联合依次对商业银行的负债、中间业务产生正向、反向的作用。

The Impact of Financial Technology on Banking Business: An Empirical Analysis Based on VAR Model

Financial technology has accelerated the process of financial disintermediation in banks, and studying the impact mechanism of financial technology on banking business is crucial for the transformation of commercial banks. The VAR model was used to analyze the quarterly data of commercial banks'' net income from loans, deposits, fees and commissions from 2017 to 2022, and the scale of third-party Internet payment transactions in the corresponding market. The VAR model was established to analyze the impact of financial technology on commercial banks'' assets, liabilities, and intermediary business and the corresponding interpretation contribution. The study found that the scale of third-party Internet payment transactions has an obvious reverse effect on the asset business of commercial banks in the first five periods. In addition, the combination of Yu''e Bao''s money market fund and third-party Internet payment transactions has a positive and negative effect on commercial banks'' liabilities and intermediary business in turn.