中国经济增长的需求结构冲击与政策分析

在分析需求结构基础上,基于我国二元结构,构建理论分析模型,并选取城镇消费、农村消费、投资、政府购买、净出口为分析指标,构建VAR分析模型,得出如下结论：投资主导经济增长效率低且不可持续,应选择消费主导经济增长;从长期经济增长来看,应大力加强农村消费;减税可作为促进经济增长的有效途径;适当的、有针对性的投资可在长期增加农村消费,促进经济增长.

An Analysis of Demand Structure Shock and Response Policy in China Economic Growth

With a heated discussion about whether China economic growth should rely on consumption-led market or investment-led market as its background, this paper develops a theoretical analysis model based on a demand structure analysis and China dual structure, and a VAR analysis model taking urban consumption, rural consumption, investment, government purchase and net export as analysis indicators, and then concludes and suggests as fol- lows： Investment-led economic growth is inefficient and unsustainable, so consumption-led economic growth should be preferred; rural consumption should be strengthened regarding long-term economic as an effective way to promote economic growth growth ; tax cut can be applied ; appropriate and targeted investments can promote rural consumption and economic growth in the long run.