我国铁路货运需求结构的VAR模型分析

在建立铁路货运量、国民经济、铁路网扩展的协整VAR模型基础上,分析三者之间的长期均衡关系和短期动态关系。结果表明,在长期中,铁路货运量随国民经济增长呈缓慢增长趋势,而随铁路网扩展呈较快增长趋势。在短期中,国民经济是铁路货运量的重要影响因素;铁路货运量和铁路网扩展对国民经济影响不大;铁路货运量是铁路网扩展的重要影响因素,而国民经济变化对其影响不大。

Analysis on VAR Model of Demand Structure for China's Railway Freight Transportation

Based on establishing co-integrated VAR model of railway freight traffic volume,national economy and railway network expansion,this paper analyzes the long-term balance relationship and short-term dynamic relationship of these three items.The results show that railway freight traffic volume experiences slow growth along with national economic growth,and realizes fast development along with the railway network expansion in the long run.In short term,national economy is an important influence factor to freight traffic volume,but there is no much influence by the freight traffic volume and railway network expansion;the freight traffic volume is an important factor to railway network expansion,but national economy has no much influence on it.