Scanning,perceived uncertainty,and the interpretation of trends: A study of hotel directors’ interpretation of demographic change |
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| Institution: | 1. Departamento de Ciência da Computação, Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo R. Marquês de Paranaguá, 111, São Paulo, SP, Brasil;2. Escola Politécnica, Departamento de Engenharia de Computação e Sistemas Digitais, Universidade de São Paulo Av. Prof. Luciano Gualberto, s/n, Travessa 3, 158, São Paulo, SP, Brasil;3. Brazilian Institute of Education, Science and Technology (IFSP), R. Pedro Vicente, 625, São Paulo, Brazil;1. Department of Finance & Marketing, Western Washington University, 516 High St, Bellingham, WA 98225, USA;2. Aaronson Department of Marketing and International Business, Zicklin School of Business, Baruch College/City University of New York, One Bernard Baruch Way, B12-240, New York, NY 10010, USA;3. Peter T. Paul College of Business and Economics, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824, USA;4. Katz Graduate School of Business and College of Business Administration, University of Pittsburgh, 3950 Roberto Clemente Dr. Pittsburgh, PA 15260, USA |
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| Abstract: | This paper examines how scanning can affect the interpretation of a specific trend and the uncertainty related to this interpretation. Based on a two-stage interpretative process, this study tests a series of hypotheses linked to scanning, trend interpretation and perceived environmental uncertainty, using survey data from the Swiss hotel industry concerning the ageing population trend. The study uncovers considerable evidence to support the main propositions, and in particular, shows how general scanning relates to positive interpretations of change and builds confidence in managers, whilst lowering perceived uncertainty. It is further found that high performance hotels engage in more scanning and experience lower uncertainty related to specific issues than do low performance hotels. This paper is innovative in examining how general scanning, not just issue-specific scanning, can reduce two types of issue-specific uncertainty, as well as influence interpretations. |
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