新疆南疆三地州经济发展现状与趋势

本文在分析南疆三地州2000年-2011年经济发展趋势与特点的基础上,利用灰色关联度模型剖析了三次产业对南疆三地州经济发展的贡献；并利用灰色预测模型GM（1,1）对南疆三地州未来5年三次产业增加值进行预测,得出结论：南疆三地州经济发展相对落后,第二产业对经济增长的推动力弱,工业发展十分薄弱；若按照2007年-2011年的发展态势,2012年-2016年,南疆三地州的三次产业增加值将不断提高,三次产业结构将不断优化.最后提出,应加快南疆三地州的工业发展,推进新型工业化进程；加快南疆三地州的特色农业发展,推进农牧业现代化；加快南疆三地州农村劳动力的转移,推进新型城镇化；加快南疆三地州的现代服务业发展,提高服务业发展质量.

The Status Quo and Tendency of Economic Development in Three Regions of Southern Xinjiang

On the basis of economic development trends and characteristics in three regions of Southern Xinjiang from the year 2000 to 2011, the paper employs gray correlation model to analyze the three times contributions of the industries in three regions of Southern Xinjiang. Then, it uses the model of GM （ 1, 1 ） to predict three times industrial added value in the following five years in these three regions. Conclusions are drawn that the economic development in three regions of Southern Xinjiang is rela- tively backward, the drive of the secondary industry to the economic growth is weak, the industrial development is very weak; ac- cording to the development trend of 2007-2011, it is predicted that during 2012 -2016, the Three regions of Southern Xinjiang in the three times industrial added value will continue to improve, the industrial structure will continue to optimize. Finally, such feasible suggestions arc put forward as accelerating the industrial development to give impetus to the process of new industrializa-tion; accelerating the development of characteristic agriculture to push forward the modernization of agriculture and animal hus-bandry; speeding up the transfer of rural labor to promote new urbanization; accelerating the development of modern service in-dustry to improve the quality of development of the service industry.