上海市居民生活用能碳排放的因素分解研究

本文运用IPCC排放因子法和扩展的LMDI因素分解模型,实证分析了上海市居民生活消费碳排放的现状、发展趋势和宏观影响因素。研究发现:(1)1989—2016年,上海市人均生活能源消费碳排放总体呈较快上升趋势,始终显著高于全国平均水平;(2)上海市碳排放结构从此前的煤炭、电力、煤气三大主体逐渐转变为电力、汽油、天然气;清洁能源的碳排放占比逐步提升;(3)上海市居民生活消费碳排放增长的主要驱动因素是收入水平效应和人口增长效应,而抑制因素依次为能源价格效应、能源技术效应、能源支出效应、消费意向效应,能源结构效应的影响作用不显著。本文据此提出相应的对策和建议,以期为上海发展低碳社会、清洁城市建言献策。

Study on Factor Decomposition of Carbon Emissions from Household Energy Use in Shanghai

The experience of developed countries shows that with the improvement of economic level and the coming of post industrial society,the carbon emission of residents'consumption will exceed that of production,and become the main source of energy consumption and carbon emission.It is of great significance to study the growth of household carbon emissions for realizing the transformation of low-carbon society.In this paper,the IPCC emission factor method and the extended LMDI factor decomposition model are used to empirically analyze the current situation,development trend and macro influencing factors of Shanghai residents'consumption carbon emissions.The results show that:(1)from 1989 to 2016,the carbon emission per capita of Shanghai's domestic energy consumption showed a rapid upward trend,which was always significantly higher than the national average level.(2)The carbon emission structure of Shanghai changed from coal,electricity and gas in 1989 to electricity,gasoline and natural gas in 2016,and the proportion of carbon emission from clean energy gradually increased.(3)The main driving factors of carbon emission growth in Shanghai residents'living consumption are income level effect and population growth effect,while the restraining factors are energy price effect,energy technology effect,energy expenditure effect and consumption intention effect,and the influence of energy structure effect is not significant.On this basis,specific countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.