个人住房抵押贷款借款人产品选择行为

1998年至今,中国个人住房抵押贷款市场迅速成长,并呈现出持续增长趋势。从完善个贷服务、降低金融风险的角度出发,深入研究借款人个贷产品选择行为具有现实意义。本文以2001年北京个贷市场实际交易数据为基础,采用二元Logit选择模型,定量分析经济因素、借款人个体属性和个贷产品属性对借款人个贷期限和贷款价值比选择行为的影响。实证研究发现,借款人性别对其个贷产品选择的影响并不显著;高收入借款人相对于中低收入借款人更倾向高比例中短期贷款;购置高价住宅的借款人相对于购置中低价格住宅的借款人更倾向选择中低比例长期贷款;未婚借款人更倾向高比例贷款;年轻借款人和高等教育程度借款人更倾向长期贷款。此外,本文结合对特定人群房价收入比的分析,探讨造成借款人选择行为差异的可能原因。本文基本结论为,借款人个贷期限和贷款价值比选择行为相对合理,不存在绝对高风险人群。

Selective Behavior of Borrowers of Individual Housing Mortgage Loan

Since 1998, Chinese market of individual housing mortgage loans has grown rapidly and has shown a continuous surging momentum. It is of practical significance to delve into the selective behavior of individual loan borrowers from the angle of improving individual loan related service and lowering financial risks. Based on the real transaction data from market of individual loans in Beijing in 2001, a bi-Logit selective model is used to quantitatively analyze the influence of economic factors, borrowers' identities and property of individual credit products on selective behavior of credit period and credit-to-value ratio. It is found through empirical study that the sex of borrowers plays little role in the choice of individual loans; high-income borrowers prefer high proportion mid-and-short term loans as compared to mid-and-low income borrowers; high-price house buyers prefer low proportion long-term loans as compared to mid-and-low price house buyers; unmarried borrowers prefer high proportion loans and young borrowers and borrowers with college education prefer long-term loans. In addition, through an analysis of housing price to income ratio among a special group, the possible cause of differences in selective behavior is under review. It is concluded that the selective behaviors of individual loan-period and loan-value ratio are relatively reasonable and there is no absolute high-risk group.