吉林省农产品进出口对农业经济增长的效应———基于出口扩展型生产函数的实证研究

吉林省是一个农业大省,农产品进出口在整个对外贸易中占有举足轻重的地位,进出口贸易与经济增长之间的相互关系历来也是学术研究的重点。文章首先分析吉林省农产品贸易的发展状况与特点,研究了吉林省农产品贸易对农业经济的贡献率与拉动率;然后以柯布道格拉斯生产函数为基础,构建出口扩展型生产函数模型,对吉林省农产品进出口与农业经济增长,农业劳动投入、资本投入与农业经济增长的关系进行了实证分析,结果表明吉林省农产品进出口、农业固定资本投入对农业经济增长均具有正向的促进作用,农业就业人数的变化对农业经济增长的作用不显著。其中吉林省农产品出口额每增加1%,会促进农业地区生产总值增加0.198%,进口每增加1%,促进农业经济增长0.205%,农产品进出口总额每增加1%,农业地区生产总值增加0.227%。因此,吉林省要努力发展外向型农业,提高优势农产品在国际市场上的份额;同时增加农业资本投入,优化投资结构。

THE EFFECT OF AGRICULTURAL EXPORT AND IMPORT ON JILIN'S AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIC GROWTH

Agriculture plays an important role in the development of Jilin's economy. The import and export of agri-cultural products accounts for a great part of Jilin's foreign trade. The relations between import and export and the e-conomical increase become the focus of academic research. In this paper, firstly, the situation of Jilin's agricultural export and import including the share of contributions to the growth of regional GDP was analyzed, and then the ex-tended production function including export was used to evaluate the effect of agricultural export and import on Jilin 's agricultural economic growth. The results showed that the increase in export, import and investment on fixed as-sets all promoted the growth of agricultural economy. The change of labor quantity employed in primary industry had little effect on the change of the agricultural output. 1% increase of agricultural export brought 0. 198% increase of the regional agricultural output, every 1% increase of agricultural import brought 0. 205% increase of the regional agricultural output. The import and export of agricultural products increased 1%, the agricultural output increased by 0. 227%. Therefore, efforts should be made to develop the foreign trade of Jilin agriculture, and to increase the market share of advantageous agricultural products. Simultaneously, investment on fixed assets in the primary in-dustry should be increased and the investment structure be optimized.