农业与旅游业耦合模型构建及实证分析

目的]通过建立向量自回归模型(VAR模型),试图定量分析农业与旅游业的耦合关系。方法]文章选取反映农业与旅游发展水平的当地农业收入、国内旅游收入、入境旅游收入、国内旅游人数、入境旅游人数等指标为研究变量,构建VAR模型。并以2006~2015年徐州市农业与旅游业相关变量数据,对该模型进行JJ检验、英格兰因果检验及变量方差分解,以开展徐州市农业与旅游业之间耦合关系分析。结果]徐州农业与旅游业初步呈现耦合发展现象,同时耦合程度在不断增强;徐州市农业的发展对旅游业的发展促进作用较大,但是旅游业对农业的发展促进作用并不明显。结论]VAR模型检验结果与徐州市农业与旅游业耦合发展实际情况基本一致,VAR模型可有效应用于分析农业与旅游业之间的耦合关系。

CONSTRUCTION OF A MODEL FOR THE COUPLING RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN AGRICULTURE AND TOURISM INDUSTRY AND EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

This paper constructed a VAR model based on the data reflecting the development of agriculture and tourism industry from 1992 to 2015, such as agricultural income, tourism income, tourism population, and so on, and then quantitatively analyzed the coupling relationship between agriculture and tourism industry using the methods of JJ test, England causality test and variable variance decomposition.The research results showed that the coupling relationship between agriculture and tourism industry in Xuzhou city was in the initial stage;meanwhile the degree of coupling was constantly increasing.The development of agriculture played a more important role in promoting the development of tourism in Xuzhou city, but the development of tourism can't promote the development of agriculture.The VAR model can be effectively applied to analyze the coupling relationship between agriculture and tourism industry.