山东省粮经作物播种比例演变及结构优化研究——基于1986～2015统计数据

目的]目前我国农业主要矛盾是结构性失衡,作为种植业大省的山东省的农业结构性矛盾更为突出,种植业供给侧结构性改革势在必行。方法]选取山东省1987~2016年农业统计年鉴中有关1986~2015年粮食作物和经济作物以及同类作物不同品种的播种面积的统计数据,运用统计分析法、图表法和对比分析法,分析山东省粮经作物播种面积比例演变特点,以及粮食作物和经济作物各自内部播种面积比例演变特点。结果]30年间,山东省粮食作物播种面积及占比呈缓慢下降趋势,而经济作物播种面积和占比则持续上升,但大豆、棉花等经济作物国际市场依存度持续走高。从粮食作物和经济作物具体品种来看,玉米、蔬菜、瓜果播种面积持续大幅度上升,而大豆、棉花播种面积连年下降。结论]山东省应在遵循国家发展粮经饲统筹的"三元"种植结构的政策导向基础上,兼顾种植户的经济利益,顺应消费者需求变化,从种植制度与生产方式安排、农作物品种选择、农作物品质提升3个方面进一步优化种植业结构。

EVOLUTION AND STRUCTURE OPTIMIZATION OF GRAIN AND CASH CROPS IN SHANDONG PROVINCE

At present, the main contradiction of China's agriculture is structural imbalance.As a big farming province, the structural contradiction of Shandong province is more prominent, and its supply-side reform of planting industry is imperative.This paper chose 1986-2015 statistical data on planting area of grain crops and cash crops from Agricultural Statistical yearbook of Shandong province, and analyzed the total characteristics of sowing rate evolution of grain and cash crops by statistical analysis, chart and comparative analysis.The results showed that the planting area and proportion of grain crops showed a slow downward trend, while the planting area and proportion of cash crops continued to be increased.The sown area of the grain crops or cash crops changed greatly.The planting area of corn, vegetables, fruits continued to increase significantly, and the planting area of soybean, cotton decreased year by year.Finally, it put forward Shandong province should follow the national policy of "three-component" cropping structure in coordinating the development of grain crops, cash crops and feed crops, consider the economic interests of growers, and further optimize the planting structure from three aspects: crop planting system and production arrangement, crop variety selection and crop quality improvement.