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Economics of tourism investment in data scarce countries |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Inter-American Development Bank, USA;2. Universidad Nacional de la Plata, Argentina;1. Department of Marketing, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand;2. Department of Management, Marketing and Entrepreneurship, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand;1. Hong Kong Baptist University, Hong Kong;2. Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong;1. University College London (UCL), UK;2. Bournemouth University, UK;3. University of Stirling, UK;4. Canterbury Christ Church University Business School, UK |
| Abstract: | Ex-ante economic impact analyses are required to demonstrate the development impact and viability of multilateral loans. These assessments are often performed under tight timelines, in data scarce environments and with limited opportunity for primary data collection. This paper develops a framework for assessing tourism interventions under these challenging conditions and evaluates a US$15 million tourism investment in Belize. This paper contributes to the literature by: (i) developing a generalizable approach to building economy-wide models in data scarce environments; (ii) generating realistic expectations of agent responses with quasi-contingent valuation and auto-regressive integrated moving average methods. Applying the first economy-wide model for Belize, results show that the investment would stimulate GDP by 3% and reduce unemployment from 12% to 10% by 2040. |
| Keywords: | Ex-ante economic impact analysis Tourism development Economy-wide model Computable general equilibrium Auto-regressive integrated moving average Stated preference |
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