TRUCKING DEREGULATION AND MOTOR-CARRIER PERFORMANCE: THE SHAREHOLDERS' PERSPECTIVE

This paper utilizes an event study methodology to investigate the effects of deregulation on carriers' shareholders. This methodology compares the expected returns during a time period surrounding a particular event with actual returns during the same time period. These differences are referred to as prediction errors. The study investigates the prediction errors associated with individual trucking firms, as well as those associated with groups composed of regional carriers, national carriers, and the aggregate sample of firms used in the study. The results suggest that the passage of the Motor Carrier Reform Act on July 1, 1980, halted a serious 18-month downward trend in the aggregate sample's cumulative prediction error. Nearly all firms showed significant gains in the 18 months subsequent to deregulation. Using two control groups, the authors show that a large portion of this gain from the industry sample can be explained by lower and more stable fuel prices and a sharp upturn in the economy. The results also indicate that due to deregulation, the large regional trucking firms were able to outperform the small regional firms and the national firms in the more favorable economic environment present after deregulation.