农产品贸易自由化对我国粮食进口的影响——论我国粮食生产的稳定性

粮食贸易是市场参与各方和学术界共同关心的焦点话题之一。我国粮食生产不具有明显的比较优势,因此,一般认为加入世贸组织以后粮食进口将快速增加。但迄今为止,国内粮食市场并没有受到国际市场的严重影响,这一事实产生的部分原因可能是粮食流通体制改革和农业税改革,但农村劳动力、灌溉、播种面积等准固定投入的粘滞性也可能发挥了重要作用。文章分四个部分从这一角度解释我国粮食市场供给稳定的内在原因。

Why Agricultural Trade Liberalization has little Impact on China's Grain Imports

China's grain trade is one of the key issues in both academic circles and market participants. The great increase of grain trade had been expected after China's entry into WTO. But, so far the domestic market has not been influenced heavily by the international market. This may be caused by the grain circulation reform and the grain subsidy policy. But stickiness of labor, irrigation and sown area as quasi-fixed inputs also play important roles in this process. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the grain production trends in China. The paper is divided into five sections. Following an introduction in Section I, Section II presents an overview of China's agriculture sector and discusses recent trends in grain trade. Section III develops a model to investigate the role of supply factors in predicting trends in grain production in China. The model is subsequently tested in Section IV. The paper concludes with conclusion and policy recommendations in Section V.