FDI部门流向、Mazumdar假说与经济增长:基于中国数据的实证分析

根据Mazumdar（1996）的观点，贸易增长机制的发生取决于一国的贸易结构：进口资本品出口消费品将降低资本品价格和折旧率，从而加速资本积累并促进经济增长。围绕这一问题，本文认为．Mazumdar的贸易增长机制能否发挥作用依赖于一国所吸引的FDI的部门流向，FDI流向资本品生产，将减少资本品进口和降低资本品价格并改善一国贸易条件，这时折旧率的降低在更大程度上促进经济增长。Mazumdar假说才得以成立；FDI流向消费品生产，将强化消费品出口并相对恶化一国贸易条件。从而抵消了资本品价格的下降带来的好处。运用中国数据和VAR模型检验。结果显示：中国的贸易结构符合Mazumdar的观点。却没有对经济增长产生显著影响。原因之一在于FDI主要流向劳动密集型消费品生产和加工贸易型机电产品生产，使得FDI所带来的贸易条件相对恶化效应大于资本品价格下降效应。

FDI Distribution、Mazumdar Hypnosis and Economic Growth:China Data Analysis

According to Mazumdar's view,exporting capital goods and importing consumption goods can decrease the price of capital goods and deflator rate,which will stimulate investment and capital formation.Considering the relationship of FDI and trade,we believes that Mazumdar hypnosis depends on the distribution of FDI.When FDI flows to capital goods production,it will decrease the import of capital goods and improve the terms of trade,the decrease of deflator rate will prompt economic growth greatly and Mazumdar hypnosis will be true.FDI flowing to consumption goods production has no benefits to economic growth.With china data and VAR model analysis,this article concludes that trade composition of china is in agreement with Mazumdar's view,but it doesn't affect economic growth drastically.The cause lays in the fact that FDI flowing to production of consumption goods and processing trade,which deteriorates the terms of trade greatly.