From 3G to 4G: technology evolution and path dynamics in China's mobile telecommunication sector

This paper adopts a standard-related lens on technology trajectory to analyse the mobile telecommunication technology choices beyond the third generation (3G) in one of the largest emerging countries. The attempt is made to model and map the technological evolution based on different standard platforms and through competing technologies under the globalised background. The interplay between different stakeholders behind different technological standards in China is examined. Whether and to what extent technological developments have respectively shaped the paths is also explored. We identify the key technological, commercial and institutional dynamics driving such technology evolution, and argue that large emerging countries can pursue their own policy agenda while dealing with the diverse interests of various stakeholders home and abroad. We also indicate that there remain some high uncertainties in terms of future technology trajectories under the emerging contexts.