A comparison of Logistic and Harvey models for electricity consumption in New Zealand |
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Authors: | Zaid Pat |
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Institution: | Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Canterbury, P.O. Box 4800 Christchurch, New Zealand |
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Abstract: | There have been a number of forecasting models based on various forms of the logistic growth curve. This paper investigates the effectiveness of two forms of Harvey models and a Logistic model for forecasting electricity consumption in New Zealand. The three growth curve models are applied to the Domestic and Non-Domestic sectors and Total electricity consumption in New Zealand. The developed models are compared using their goodness of fit to historical data and forecasting accuracy over a period of 19 years. The comparison revealed that the Harvey model is a very appropriate candidate for forecasting electricity consumption in New Zealand. The developed models are also compared with some available national forecasts. |
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Keywords: | Forecasting Energy Growth curve models Logistic growth |
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