浙江省县域经济发展差异时空演变分析

文章以浙江省69个县域单元为研究对象，利用非参数核密度估计和探索性空间数据分析方法，采用1991-2011年县域人均国内生产总值数据，定量揭示浙江省县域经济发展的时空演变差异、空间相关性及其演化趋势。结论显示：浙江省县域经济发展水平整体提高的同时，县域经济发展差异逐渐加剧；全局自相关分析显示浙江省县域经济发展存在显著空间自相关性，并且表现出典型的高高集聚与低低集聚空间分布类型；局域自相关分析表明浙东北县域经济发展水平显著高于浙西南地区，整体上呈现明显的城乡二元空间经济结构，高高集聚与低低集聚对全省县域经济发展空间格局演化贡献程度最高。

The Spatial-temporal Evolution Analysis on Disparities of Economic Development at County-level in Zhejiang Province

Using non-parametric kernel density estimation method and exploratory spatial data analysis method,the paper re-veals quantitatively spatial-temporal disparities,spatial correlation,and its evolution trend of economic development at coun-ty-level in Zhejiang Province based on the data of per capita GDP of 69 counties during the year of 1991 to 2011. The results show that,when the overall level of economic development at county-level is improved in Zhejiang Province,the disparities of economic development are gradually increasing accordingly. Global auto-correlation analysis shows that the economic develop-ment at county-level is closely related to spatial auto-correlation in Zhejiang Province,and represents typical spatial distribu-tion type of high-high agglomeration and low-low agglomeration. Local auto-correlation analysis indicates that the level of eco-nomic development at county-level in northeast Zhejiang is significantly higher than that in southwest province, it appears a clear urban-rural dual economic structure as a whole. The high-high agglomeration and low-low agglomeration make the great-est contribution to the evolution of spatial pattern of economic development at county-level in the province.