铁路建设项目投资的博弈分析

论文主要研究在没有直通铁路的两地之间，以BOT方式投资修建铁路线路时，投资者与铁路运输客户之间的博弈分析。作者采用完全信息动态博弈模型，通过分析铁路建设成本、运营成本、安全成本等因素，计算新建铁路可能的吸引运量，由此推导投资者的最优投入资本量和铁路建成后的最优运价。论文还依据以上博弈分析过程，得到了关于铁路项目采用BOT方式建设的一些重要结论。

A Game Analysis on Railway Construction Investment

With a model of a dynamic game of complete information, this paper studies the game actions between investor and client of railway transport, which plans to build a railway under a BOT scheme. Through analyzing constructing cost, operating cost, safe cost and so on, the writer work out the possible capacity of transport absorbing and infer the of investor and the price after the railway constructed. According to above game analysis, the paper drawn some important conclusion on railway constructing project under a BOT scheme.