| Abstract: | Since the 1970s, Indonesia has placed increasing emphasis on the development of stronger planning capacity at the regional level; however, the concept of regional autonomy is still viewed with suspicion given Indonesia's history of regional separatist movements. This fact has implications for the need for national population policy to be formulated and implemented with a view toward the varying conditions faced by different provinces and regions. The author presents a case study of fertility, mortality, migration, urbanization, and the development of human capital in 1 Indonesian province--North Sulawesi--to illustrate that special characteristics and internal diversity can demand individualized responses by policy makers. In terms of these 5 areas, the following observations can be made about conditions in North Sulawesi: 1) mortality rates are already below the national average, although infant mortality remains unacceptably high; 2) fertility rates are also well below the national average and approaching replacement level without any aggressive family planning outreach activities, but there remains a need to identify the ultimate fertility target and the extent to which intervention is required; 3) there is little scope for absorbing transmigrants, but there are some major issues regarding population redistribution within the province; 4) although there are no large cities, the increasing dominance of Manado is a concern; and 5) the quality of education and an employment structure to match the well-educated labor force are more important than an expansion of these services. A central concern is the ability of North Sulawesi to prevent "brain drain" to Jakarta; however, the province's capacity to do so is dependent on decisions made in Jakarta about the allocation of revenue, regulations regarding the processing of copra and cloves, new air routes, and the extent of regional autonomy to be tolerated in decisions affecting provincial growth. |
