Present and future: a trend forecasting and ranking of university types for innovative development from an intellectual capital perspective

In today’s knowledge-based economy, by well intellectual capital (IC) managing to enhance innovative ability and performance has become critical as many nations struggle to gain sustainable competitive advantage. Knowledge, innovation, and IC are at a university’s core. Given its function of cultivating innovative assets, R&D researchers, hi-tech professions and interdisciplinary talent, universities have become a critical factor in building sustainable competitive advantages worldwide. The important role universities play is particularly essential in Taiwan. The hi-tech industry, as the most profitable industry sector, directly impacts the growth of the Taiwanese economy. However, as global competition in higher education becomes fierce, higher education in Taiwan is losing its competitive standing and global market share for students and, additionally, Taiwan is losing its overall competitive advantage in the global economy. Universities today face significantly unbalanced student enrollment numbers and several universities have failed to keep operating from late 2008 to 2009. In order to understand both current and future development trends in higher education and to conquer above difficulties, it has become crucial to understand the manifestation of innovative development with respect to IC for different university types. In this regard, the aim of this study was to explore the rankings of five university types in terms of innovative development from an IC perspective and to provide recommendations for future improvements, taking basic development trends into account. Trend forecasting from Grey Model (GM) was initially used to investigate and forecast current and future Taiwanese birth rates and the basic development trends of five university types. After that, VIKOR was utilized to rank the five university types in accordance with opinions from twenty senior experts with regard to IC. In agreement with the research findings, universities in Taiwan are encouraged to improve their innovative ability from an IC perspective in order to regain a sustainable competitive advantage globally in the future.