我国的财政赤字"过大"吗?

自1998年我国实施积极财政政策以来,财政赤字和国债规模都大大增加了,引起社会各界的广泛关注.我国近年来的财政赤字过大吗?是否会引起财政危机?本文根据政府跨时预算约束理论,利用协整方法,从动态角度分析我国改革开放以来财政赤字的可持续性.我们发现,尽管20多年来我国一直存在财政赤字,而且近年来财政赤字增加了,但没有证据表明我国的财政赤字过大.因此,我们的结论是,我国的财政赤字政策是可持续的.

Is Fiscal Deficits Too Large in China?

The magnitude of fiscal deficits and public debts has increased significantly since 1998 when the active fiscal policy was adopted. Is recent government fiscal deficit too large? Could it bring about fiscal crisis? Recently, these questions have received an immense amount of public attention. In this paper, based on government intertemporal budget constraint, we dynamically analyze the long-run sustainability of fiscal deficit during 1978-2001 by using cointegraton method. We find that although fiscal deficit has existed for a long time and has been growing recently, there is no evidence that fiscal deficit is too large. Therefore, we conclude that the budget deficit policy in China is sustainable.