基于残值视角的PPP项目特许权期决策研究

模式在我国应用前景广阔，合理的特许权期对PPP项目的成功运作至关重要。本文在已有研 究的基础上，根据PPP项目价值的波动规律，将PPP项目价值波动分解为磨损造成的价值下降 与维护引起的价值上升两个方面，从项目残值必须符合预期的角度，分析PPP项目的维护投 入，进而构建考虑残值的PPP项目特许权期决策模型。研究表明：（1）项目的报废率与建设 成本正相关，与经济寿命期负相关；（2）社会资本对PPP项目的维护投入随着运营时间逐渐 增加，且与建设成本负相关、与经济寿命期正相关、与特许权期负相关；（3）当社会资本 的投资回收速率较低或期望报酬率较高时，政府应制定较长的特许权期；（4）较长的特许 权期对社会资本增加建设投资具有激励效果。本研究旨在为政企双方进行合理特许权期的决 策提供新的角度与方法。

Decision-Making on the Concession Period for PPP Project Based on the Perspective of the Residual Value

It i s a great prospect of application that the PPP（Public-Private-Partnership）mode l has in China,and the reasonable concession period is crucial to the success of a PPP project.On the basis of the existing researches,the decline in the value of PPP project is divided into two aspects:the increase caused by wearing and th e decline caused by maintaining.Then the concession period model is made conside ring the constriction that the residual value must be consistent with the expect ation and the influence of maintaining.Our results show that:（1）there is a pos itive correlation between the scrap rate and the cost of construction,and a nega tive one between the scrap rate and the economic life;（2）the investment for th e maintenance increases gradually with the operation time,which is negatively re lated to the construction cost,and is positively related to the economic life or the concession period;（3）when the investment recovery rate is low or the expe cted rate of return is high,government departments should make a long concession period;（4）a long concession period has incentive effect on increasing the con struction investment of project company.Our study intends to provide the new per spective and method for both government and enterprise.