出口管制对中美贸易失衡的影响研究

文章选取被美国放松管制的典型发达国家和发展中国家作为参照样本，按照美国产业安全局关于高新技术的10个分类标准，在放松对华管制的假定条件下，模拟美国高技术产品对华潜在出口增加值，由此判断出口管制对中美贸易失衡的影响程度。研究发现：在非常宽松和宽松两种情景下，无论是参照发达国家还是发展中国家的对美贸易结构系数，影响因子的平均模拟值均低于5%，这表明出口管制不是中美贸易失衡的主要原因；但影响因子的模拟值具有普遍递增趋势，这反映出口管制对贸易失衡的影响越来越大。中美贸易呈现的并非“制度性失衡”而是“结构性失衡”。

Study on the Effects of Export Control on Trade Imbalance between China and American

〔Abstract〕 This paper chooses several typical developed and developing countries who are less controlled by USA as reference sam-ples , cites the standards of 10 classification of advanced technology products issued by Bureau of Industry Security of USA , and calculates the potential export growth of ATP in USA assumed America relaxing export control to China , then evaluates the extent of the impact of ex-port control on China-US trade imbalance . It is found that the average simulation value of influence factor is lower than 5% , whether it is reference to developed countries'trade structure to the United States or developing countries'and whether it is in the scene of very loose control or the scene of relax control . The result shows that export control policies are not the main cause of trade imbalance . The increasing simulation value of influence factor illustrates that export control action becomes more and more influence on trade deficit . Therefore , the China-US trade imbalance is not “institution imbalance” but “structural imbalance” .