| 风电场风速预测的不确定性研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 周松林,刘增良. 风电场风速预测的不确定性研究[J]. 铜陵学院学报, 2014, 0(3): 100-104 |
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| 作者姓名： | 周松林 刘增良 |
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| 作者单位： | 铜陵学院,安徽铜陵244000 |
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| 基金项目： | 安徽省高校自然科学基金重点项目（KJ2014A258） |
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| 摘 要： | 风速预测的超前性导致其预测结果是不确定的,传统的确定性风速预测只提供确切的数值,不能满足电网规划的要求。分析了风速预测结果不确定性影响因素,并在确定性预测结果的基础上,从条件概率和预测误差分布统计规律两个角度对预测概率和置信区间进行分析和计算。仿真试验表明该方法能够为决策者提供概率预测信息,具有一定的实用性和有效性。
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| 关 键 词： | 风速预测 不确定性预测 误差概率分布 置信区间 预测概率 |
Uncertainty in Wind Speed Predictions for Wind Farms |
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| Zhou Song-lin,Liu Zeng-liang. Uncertainty in Wind Speed Predictions for Wind Farms[J]. Journal of Tongling College, 2014, 0(3): 100-104 |
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| Authors: | Zhou Song-lin Liu Zeng-liang |
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| Affiliation: | (Tongling University, Tongling Anhui 244000, China) |
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| Abstract: | Wind speed prediction in advance usually brings about uncertainty of predicted results. Traditional deterministic forecasts only provide exact values, which can not meet the requirements of network planning. The uncertainty factors of the wind speed prediction are analyzed in the paper firstly, and then the prediction probability and confidence interval are separately analyzed and calculated from conditional probability and statistical laws of forecast errors based on the deterministic forecast results. Simulation results show that the methods are practical and effective, which can provide more probabilistic forecast information to decision makers. |
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| Keywords: | wind speed prediction uncertain prediction error probability distribution confidence interval prediction probability |
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