创建文明城市对地方居民消费的影响机制研究

基于“全国文明城市”评选活动的准自然实验，依据2003—2021年282个地级市面板数据，运用多期DID、PSM-DID、安慰剂检验、反事实分析等方法，检验创建文明城市对地区居民消费的影响效应和作用机制。结果显示：创建文明城市扩大了地区常住人口规模、增大了人口密度、提升了地区消费总量、降低了地区人均消费水平，且在城市商业发展水平、区位特征、常住人口规模方面具有异质性。鉴于此，应多措并举，因城施策，优化评选体系与复查机制，提升城市治理水平，增强流动人口定居意愿，促进创建文明城市对地区经济社会发展的长期效应。

Research on the Impact Mechanism of Creating Civilized Cities on Local Residents’ Consumption

Based on the quasi-natural experiment of the “National Civilized City” selection activity and panel data from 282 prefecture level cities from 2003 to 2021, this study uses methods such as multi-period DID, PSM-DID, placebo test, and counterfactual analysis to examine the impact and mechanism of creating civilized cities on regional resident consumption. The results show that creating a civilized city has expanded the size of the regional permanent population, increased population density, increased the total regional consumption, and reduced the per capita consumption level in the region. Moreover, there is heterogeneity in the level of urban commercial development, location characteristics, and permanent population size. In view of this, multiple measures should be taken simultaneously, tailored to the city, optimizing the selection system and review mechanism, enhancing the level of urban governance, enhancing the willingness of migrant populations to settle, and promoting the long-term effect of creating a civilized city on regional economic and social development.