长期照护保险对农村家庭消费水平的影响——基于CHARLS数据的实证分析

基于预防性储蓄等理论，运用双重差分法，依据中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)2011—2018年四期面板数据，考量长期照护保险政策对农村家庭消费水平的影响效应。结果显示，长期照护保险使得农村家庭消费水平总体提高了5.2%,这种消费促进效应突出地体现在食品消费、日用品消费、通信消费中，对文化娱乐消费和衣着消费影响不明显。异质性分析显示，非独生子女、收入高以及过去一年内有住院经历的农村家庭受长期照护保险政策的影响程度更大。机制分析表明，预防性储蓄、居民健康和代际经济支持是长期照护保险影响农村家庭消费的重要途径。鉴于此，应通过扩大城乡试点范围、建立多元筹资渠道、构建服务供给体系等方式，推动长期照护保险实现城乡全覆盖。

The Impact of Long-Term Care Insurance on the Consumption Level of Rural Households—An Empirical Analysis Based on CHARLS Data

Based on theories such as preventive savings, the double difference method is applied to consider the impact effect of long-term care insurance policies on the consumption level of rural households using the China Health and Aged Care Tracking Survey (CHARLS) four-period panel data from 2011 to 2018. The results show that long-term care insurance has led to an overall increase of 5.2% in the consumption level of rural households, and this consumption-boosting effect is prominently reflected in food consumption, daily necessities consumption, and communication consumption, with an insignificant impact on cultural and entertainment consumption and clothing consumption. Heterogeneity analysis found that rural households with non-only-child, high incomes, and hospitalization experiences in the past year were affected to a greater extent by the long-term care insurance policy. Mechanism analysis finds that preventive savings, resident health and intergenerational economic support are important ways in which long-term care insurance affects rural households’ consumption. In view of this, the study suggests promoting the realization of full coverage of long-term care insurance in urban and rural areas by expanding the scope of urban and rural pilot projects, establishing diversified financing channels and building a service provision system.