住房价格上涨的金融支持及检验——基于VEC模型的实证分析

金融对房地产的支持是否过度是判断当前房价波动的金融风险可能性及其程度的重要依据。通过建立向量误差修正模型并借助脉冲响应分析和方差分解,重点对中国近年来住房价格上涨中的金融因素进行分析。结果表明:金融对房地产业低利率成本的信贷支持、土地价格上涨以及投机因素是推动房价上涨的主要因素。在当前房地产市场低迷的情况下,房价波动的加剧可能给金融及经济稳定带来冲击。

Finance Support and Test of Housing Price Rising:Analysis Based on VEC Model

Whether there exists excessive financial support on real estate industry is an important evidence to estimate the probability and extent of financial risk with the fluctuation of housing price. With Vector Error Correction Model, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition, this paper analyzes the finance factors that cause the prompt rise of house price in China. The results show that credit support of low interest rate from the bank system, the rising of land price and speculation are the main re...