现代资产组合理论的一个拓展:出口市场组合模型——关于我国出口市场多元化的理论思考

出口多元化战略实施十多年以来,我国出口市场仍较为集中。出口多元化战略包括两层含义:产品的多元化和市场的多元化。国内理论界关于多元化战略的研究主要集中在前者,关于后者的研究则比较罕见。本文试图借鉴现代资产组合理论的思想,运用相对方差来衡量风险,构造了出口市场组合模型,用于定量分析多元化战略中的“市场多元化”问题,为降低我国产品出口所面临的市场风险提供理论指导。

An Extension to Modern Theory of Portfolios:Model of Export Markets Combinations

China's export markets are still very intensive since its export diversification strategy was initiated over 10 years ago. Export diversification strategy including both how to diversify goods and how to diversify markets. Domestic researches mainly focus on the former, while few researches on the latter. This paper attempts to construct the model of export markets combinations based on the modern theory of portfolios, risk concept defined in terms of relative variance, to make an quantitative analysis of diversifying export markets available.